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What if Yasser Arafat dies?


lukeiamyourdad
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Hard to guess. I see several possibilities (ranked in order of preferability):

 

1) PLO high echelons take over in a smooth transistion of power. Personally I'd be very surprised to see this.

 

2) Leper Messiah spelled Nr. 2) out pretty well.

 

3) A broad coalition forms to take over control of the Palestinian Liberation effort. This is what all the different organizations say they want. This could turn into a Nr. 2), or it could mean that all of a sudden the nationalists and criminals we faced before will have their ranks bolstered by religious combatants and (other) lunatics. This would be a pretty ****ty outcome, because it would leave no Palestinian chain of command in place that was even half-way legitimate. Arafat - sonofagoat though he may have been - did ensure that there was a Palestinian organisation that was half-way sane. That guarentee has just gone down the drain.

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You sound kinda biased, ShadowTemplar. Arafat was a leader on-par with Jerry Adams, in many respects. He gave the Palestinian cause a face of legitimacy, dignity... Hardly a son-of-a-goat.

 

But there's nothing to say that the subsequent leadership won't be just as sensible and charismatic. We'll just have to wait and see. The idea that every Palestinian except Arafat is a ravening lunatic without crowd-controlling abilities is very Likud in nature. It would be folly to underestimate the solidity of Palestinian collective purpose at this stage. It might go south, or it might be strengthened by Arafat's martyrdom. Who can say?

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Either:

 

(a) The existing prime mister and people take over.

(b) More hardline people come to power

© There is a power struggle

 

(a) May be the most likely, but they will have the same problems Arafat had, that they have to both be seen to compromise and also to take the palestinian public with them.

Arafat did miss a couple of great opportunities for peace, but he did fairly well match the general palestinian views at the time. And he was well loved.

 

Any new leader is going to have to walk a very fine line.

 

America and isreal will probably be glad he is gone, after publicly declaring that they couldn't work with him (a dangerous, sulky move by bush imho). But the problem they will have with any new leader is that he WONT have as much support among the palestinians and so won't be able to promise as much.

 

Still, who knows....

Bush seems to be a bit more willing to engage since the election, maybe he has started to think about what his legacy will be...

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Originally posted by Spider AL

You sound kinda biased, ShadowTemplar. Arafat was a leader on-par with Jerry Adams, in many respects. He gave the Palestinian cause a face of legitimacy, dignity... Hardly a son-of-a-goat.

 

I don't particularily like Arafat, no. Mainly because he's use the fact that he's viewed as an icon to siphon off funds from the PLO coffers to his own private enterprizes. Not nessecarily worse than any other mid-east despot, but certainly not a lot better, either.

 

And for the record, I think that Likud can go screw themselves, and that Sharon belongs in a prison in Haag. Just so that's settled.

 

But there's nothing to say that the subsequent leadership won't be just as sensible and charismatic. We'll just have to wait and see. The idea that every Palestinian except Arafat is a ravening lunatic without crowd-controlling abilities is very Likud in nature.

 

That's not what I was saying. What I was saying - or trying to say at any rate - is that the PLO has until now been blissfully free of religious fanatics. These religious fanatics lurk in the shadows, however, and are likely to at least attempt to exploit the power vacuum left by Arafat. So unless the PLO gets its act together pretty darn quickly, either the Palestinian leadership will tear itself apart trying to push the nutters back out of their turf, or the nutters will be too far in, and then we'll have nutters in charge on both sides of the border.

 

It would be folly to underestimate the solidity of Palestinian collective purpose at this stage. It might go south, or it might be strengthened by Arafat's martyrdom. Who can say?

 

I'm not questioning their will to fight. I'm questioning their will to fight a legitimate (read: Secular) fight from a realistic basis (read: Basically acknowledging that Israel is there to stay).

 

Arafat has stood guard (well mostly) over these two principles, and despite his flaws, his absence may cause either or both of the two unacceptable political views to creep into the central leadership of the Palestinian people.

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Arafat has stood guard (well mostly) over these two principles, and despite his flaws, his absence may cause either or both of the two unacceptable political views to creep into the central leadership of the Palestinian people.
Key word: "may". My entire previous post hopefully made the point that placing bets at this stage is somewhat premature, and also vaguely insulting to the Palestinians.

 

I don't particularily like Arafat, no. Mainly because he's use the fact that he's viewed as an icon to siphon off funds from the PLO coffers to his own private enterprizes. Not nessecarily worse than any other mid-east despot, but certainly not a lot better, either.
It's important to remember that while Arafat is undoubtedly corrupt as all politicans are, the most vocal attacks on Arafat's financial honesty come to us via the somewhat less than unbiased Israeli government and media. In addition, a prominent witness in this respect, Jaweed Hussein, first gave his story to Israeli publications after fleeing to Israel, and was himself accused of embezzlement by the Palestinian authority before he fled.

 

From all the reputable, neutral news sources I've been able to access, it would appear that it's still unclear what funds are unaccounted for, and where they may have been shipped off to. Maybe they funded Palestinian freedom fighters, maybe they bought Arafat a really nice new headscarf. Who knows. Either way, I reserve judgement as long as the information we're receiving is incomplete or tainted.

 

As for Sharon, we agree implicitly. He's a bloody war criminal and should be locked in a bottle-dungeon for all eternity, the obese old dribbling murderer.

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Originally posted by CapNColostomy

Yay. The suspense was killing me. Now we get to find out what happens when he dies. Huzzah.

 

You, sir, are an insentive prick. although the suspense was killing me too...

 

Anyway, I predict that civil war will break out. Maybe Isreal will make a strike soon...

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