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Crazy Kim dies, succeeded by son


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His son is supposed to be even more hardcore then his father and he will most likely attack South-Korea, to show that he is a capable leader.


I'm assuming you mean that the US would step in to defend SK and China would back NK. Then a cataclysmic war would ensue, right? I find that very hard to believe, partly because the G2 theory seems much more believable (although a new bipolarity is not very likely IMHO, few serious International Relations theories points toward a "warm" conflict of magnitude between the two countries - in any case, war is not likely). The outcome I'd predict for an aggression of NK on SK would be an unilateral reaction from the US troops stationed on the South Korean territory and immediacies which wouldn't trigger an international abjuration because SK would be the victim.


Plus, war-crazed as Jong-Il was rumored to be, he never did break the truce seriously (yes, small provocations such as the fairly recent navy incursions and submarine attack existed but they never led to an escalation of the conflict parting from the South Korean side). He did make use of nuclear deterrence to get advantages in negotiations - on his case, to get food to feed his people and livelihood - but who hasn't? Considering his son does not yet holds the entire system on his hand with absolute power, if he ever leads country into even more hot waters his own administration may very well get rid of him.

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