Mator Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hello, I'm new here. I was just returning to Knights of the Old Republic, and I was about to start up Pazaak in Taris again, when I felt the need to seek out what other people's strategies were regarding Pazaak. After reading several pazaak guides/strategies on the internet, I felt woefully unconvinced. I'm starting this thread so I can share my ideas regarding pazaak, and perhaps hear some from other members as well. So to begin, I decided to use a Monte Carlo simulation to see what I could learn about the probability of getting certain results on a pazaak table. My program is currently pretty simple, so some extrapolation on the produced data will be necessary. To begin, I'm simply rolling random values between 1 and 10 for cards, and playing a game up until the value is greater than or equal to 20, or until there are 9 cards on the table. At this point I store what the value is and simulate a new game of pazaak. I don't think the decks in KOTOR have a finite number of each type of card (though I have heard mention of there being 4 of each card between 1 and 10). In the case that they do have a finite number of each card this simulation may yield different results. I simulated 100,000 games, and these are my results: ----------------------- Pazaak game tester v0.1 ----------------------- 100000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 81756 g10: 23678 g11: 16053 g12: 16687 g13: 16985 g14: 17681 g15: 17876 g16: 18237 g17: 18544 g18: 18785 g19: 18774 g20: 18242 g21: 16018 g22: 14241 g23: 12586 g24: 10973 g25: 9205 g26: 7485 g27: 5618 g28: 3736 g29: 1894 g30: 0 gDouble: 25532 --Rolls-- r1: 41815 r2: 41936 r3: 42199 r4: 41652 r5: 42066 r6: 41997 r7: 41748 r8: 41878 r9: 41651 r10: 42002 A quick explanation of these values: Busts: Whenever the game doesn't end in a 20, I count the game as a bust. This is why this number is so large, and why this number plus g20 equals the number of games simulated. g10: Whenever the sum of the cards on the table is 10, I count that as a g10. g11-g30: Same idea as g10, but with the sums corresponding to the variable name. gDouble: Whenever a card is thrown such that you can use the "doubling card" from TSL (e.g. a game starting with 10) to win, I increased gDouble. r1-r10: Just to show that the randomization was working, these values correspond to each time a 1, 2, 3... etc. card was "rolled". As you can tell they're all close to 42,000 (for a total of 418,994 rolls, corresponding to an average of 4.189 cards per game before reaching or exceeding a value of 20). Obviously there's a lot more work to be done here, but I'm confident that with time we can find the most ideal pazaak hands and from there the most ideal pazaak deck. --EDIT-- Did some more simulation work and expanded the program's capabilities. Tested 10,000,000 games per card type. The tested card was played whenever table value was such that playing it resulted in total card value of 20, or in the case of subtraction cards, whenever the table value exceeded 20. Direct victories are where using the card resulted in a table value of 20, luck victories are where you used a subtraction card to go below 20 and then got 20 later on in the game. Card Probability Results: +6 Victories without using card: 1546561 Test card +6 direct victories: 1756088 Test card +6 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 15.47% Total chance of victory: 33.03% +5 Victories without using card: 1564440 Test card +5 direct victories: 1800038 Test card +5 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 15.64% Total chance of victory: 33.64% +4 Victories without using card: 1583265 Test card +4 direct victories: 1834424 Test card +4 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 15.83% Total chance of victory: 34.18% +3 Victories without using card: 1603384 Test card +3 direct victories: 1859016 Test card +3 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 16.03% Total chance of victory: 34.62% +2 Victories without using card: 1624613 Test card +2 direct victories: 1862669 Test card +2 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 16.24% Total chance of victory: 34.87% +1 Victories without using card: 1642042 Test card +1 direct victories: 1857887 Test card +1 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 16.42% Total chance of victory: 35.00% -6 Victories without using card: 1827851 Test card -6 direct victories: 1343382 Test card -6 luck victories: 755766 Chance of victory without using card: 18.28% Total chance of victory: 39.27% -5 Victories without using card: 1828517 Test card -5 direct victories: 1530948 Test card -5 luck victories: 612853 Chance of victory without using card: 18.29% Total chance of victory: 39.72% -4 Victories without using card: 1828937 Test card -4 direct victories: 1559155 Test card -4 luck victories: 464965 Chance of victory without using card: 18.29% Total chance of victory: 38.53% -3 Victories without using card: 1827270 Test card -3 direct victories: 1578922 Test card -3 luck victories: 310677 Chance of victory without using card: 18.27% Total chance of victory: 37.17% -2 Victories without using card: 1825755 Test card -2 direct victories: 1591142 Test card -2 luck victories: 155946 Chance of victory without using card: 18.26% Total chance of victory: 35.73% -1 Victories without using card: 1826087 Test card -1 direct victories: 1591168 Test card -1 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 18.26% Total chance of victory: 34.17% +/-6 Victories without using card: 1546192 Test card +/-6 direct victories: 2893080 Test card +/-6 luck victories: 610858 Chance of victory without using card: 15.46% Total chance of victory: 50.50% +/-5 Victories without using card: 1564809 Test card +/-5 direct victories: 2954220 Test card +/-5 luck victories: 497123 Chance of victory without using card: 15.64% Total chance of victory: 50.16% +/-4 Victories without using card: 1585434 Test card +/-4 direct victories: 3074411 Test card +/-4 luck victories: 387313 Chance of victory without using card: 15.85% Total chance of victory: 50.47% +/-3 Victories without using card: 1603198 Test card +/-3 direct victories: 3165574 Test card +/-3 luck victories: 265437 Chance of victory without using card: 16.03% Total chance of victory: 50.34% +/-2 Victories without using card: 1622371 Test card +/-2 direct victories: 3231314 Test card +/-2 luck victories: 136824 Chance of victory without using card: 16.22% Total chance of victory: 49.91% +/-1 Victories without using card: 1643193 Test card +/-1 direct victories: 3264196 Test card +/-1 luck victories: 0 Chance of victory without using card: 16.43% Total chance of victory: 49.07% Show spoiler (hidden content - requires Javascript to show) ----------------------- Pazaak game tester v0.4 ----------------------- 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6697351 9 cards: 4320 g10: 2359855 g11: 1594229 g12: 1653916 g13: 1707651 g14: 0 g15: 1625516 g16: 1642501 g17: 1644493 g18: 1629537 g19: 1601081 g20: 1546561 g21: 1310413 g22: 1149495 g23: 983114 g24: 814495 g25: 813440 g26: 652041 g27: 487916 g28: 322109 g29: 160008 g30: 0 gDouble: 2328667 --Rolls-- r1: 3734940 r2: 3735893 r3: 3743647 r4: 3665867 r5: 3689967 r6: 3708140 r7: 3728153 r8: 3743483 r9: 3758528 r10: 3768384 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1546561 Test card +6 direct victories: 1756088 Test card +6 luck victories: 0 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6635522 9 cards: 4366 g10: 2358693 g11: 1593700 g12: 1653403 g13: 1708566 g14: 1757097 g15: 0 g16: 1654343 g17: 1659789 g18: 1649201 g19: 1618603 g20: 1564440 g21: 1329042 g22: 1169752 g23: 1005576 g24: 831966 g25: 657961 g26: 657293 g27: 491981 g28: 326572 g29: 161013 g30: 0 gDouble: 2504961 --Rolls-- r1: 3746528 r2: 3753170 r3: 3757902 r4: 3762394 r5: 3687527 r6: 3710528 r7: 3730608 r8: 3743900 r9: 3762060 r10: 3773521 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1564440 Test card +5 direct victories: 1800038 Test card +5 luck victories: 0 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6582311 9 cards: 4456 g10: 2357602 g11: 1593084 g12: 1650598 g13: 1708296 g14: 1760235 g15: 1801141 g16: 0 g17: 1671419 g18: 1665643 g19: 1635787 g20: 1583265 g21: 1349430 g22: 1189966 g23: 1023501 g24: 851540 g25: 677854 g26: 497097 g27: 495336 g28: 329107 g29: 164024 g30: 0 gDouble: 2340575 --Rolls-- r1: 3762173 r2: 3767584 r3: 3770382 r4: 3775287 r5: 3782044 r6: 3705527 r7: 3730971 r8: 3746967 r9: 3763485 r10: 3780040 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1583265 Test card +4 direct victories: 1834424 Test card +4 luck victories: 0 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6537600 9 cards: 4388 g10: 2357677 g11: 1593131 g12: 1654436 g13: 1707533 g14: 1759852 g15: 1798795 g16: 1835143 g17: 0 g18: 1679589 g19: 1653858 g20: 1603384 g21: 1365843 g22: 1206770 g23: 1043074 g24: 872512 g25: 697120 g26: 517781 g27: 332873 g28: 332423 g29: 164816 g30: 0 gDouble: 2528165 --Rolls-- r1: 3780483 r2: 3781549 r3: 3785523 r4: 3794656 r5: 3796194 r6: 3802847 r7: 3723004 r8: 3744394 r9: 3765229 r10: 3785450 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1603384 Test card +3 direct victories: 1859016 Test card +3 luck victories: 0 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6512718 9 cards: 4366 g10: 2357631 g11: 1591668 g12: 1652661 g13: 1708989 g14: 1757998 g15: 1800713 g16: 1836761 g17: 1856598 g18: 0 g19: 1671631 g20: 1624613 g21: 1388374 g22: 1226792 g23: 1061883 g24: 891907 g25: 717092 g26: 535651 g27: 352726 g28: 166069 g29: 167858 g30: 0 gDouble: 2358279 --Rolls-- r1: 3793019 r2: 3793517 r3: 3801775 r4: 3806546 r5: 3810567 r6: 3819580 r7: 3820664 r8: 3749217 r9: 3766314 r10: 3783956 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1624613 Test card +2 direct victories: 1862669 Test card +2 luck victories: 0 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6500071 9 cards: 4385 g10: 2355804 g11: 1592775 g12: 1653761 g13: 1706482 g14: 1759051 g15: 1802045 g16: 1836086 g17: 1858140 g18: 1865046 g19: 0 g20: 1642042 g21: 1405875 g22: 1247986 g23: 1081025 g24: 911371 g25: 735178 g26: 555791 g27: 371812 g28: 186648 g29: 0 g30: 0 gDouble: 2544931 --Rolls-- r1: 3810653 r2: 3813134 r3: 3817661 r4: 3816814 r5: 3828385 r6: 3832022 r7: 3834158 r8: 3842902 r9: 3760691 r10: 3787407 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1642042 Test card +1 direct victories: 1857887 Test card +1 luck victories: 0 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6048588 9 cards: 274268 g10: 2355855 g11: 1592881 g12: 1652651 g13: 1708731 g14: 1759644 g15: 3391083 g16: 3425294 g17: 3432570 g18: 3427086 g19: 3388953 g20: 1827851 g21: 1312948 g22: 1127226 g23: 940644 g24: 755678 g25: 755712 g26: 0 g27: 444445 g28: 293170 g29: 144497 g30: 0 gDouble: 2850522 --Rolls-- r1: 4941331 r2: 4944904 r3: 4941640 r4: 4943741 r5: 4943445 r6: 4940668 r7: 4611431 r8: 4602831 r9: 4605096 r10: 4602520 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1827851 Test card -6 direct victories: 1343382 Test card -6 luck victories: 755766 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6007958 9 cards: 187208 g10: 2358108 g11: 1595624 g12: 1652601 g13: 1708108 g14: 1758441 g15: 1800906 g16: 3424208 g17: 3446291 g18: 3443252 g19: 3414451 g20: 1828517 g21: 1352835 g22: 1168709 g23: 984256 g24: 798236 g25: 0 g26: 610642 g27: 456236 g28: 301417 g29: 148419 g30: 0 gDouble: 2853136 --Rolls-- r1: 4796146 r2: 4794222 r3: 4800835 r4: 4798443 r5: 4795422 r6: 4462604 r7: 4460548 r8: 4456123 r9: 4458333 r10: 4619405 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1828517 Test card -5 direct victories: 1530948 Test card -5 luck victories: 612853 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6132005 9 cards: 121551 g10: 2358626 g11: 1595477 g12: 1653737 g13: 1705493 g14: 1759386 g15: 1802301 g16: 1833766 g17: 3447805 g18: 3455345 g19: 3434137 g20: 1828937 g21: 1383348 g22: 1202995 g23: 1019579 g24: 372465 g25: 646896 g26: 463327 g27: 463638 g28: 306293 g29: 151913 g30: 0 gDouble: 2703071 --Rolls-- r1: 4650821 r2: 4650895 r3: 4652172 r4: 4646044 r5: 4310678 r6: 4305992 r7: 4306478 r8: 4466817 r9: 4468594 r10: 4472252 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1828937 Test card -4 direct victories: 1559155 Test card -4 luck victories: 464965 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6273314 9 cards: 70916 g10: 2355969 g11: 1594854 g12: 1651727 g13: 1708986 g14: 1758467 g15: 1802267 g16: 1834043 g17: 1857474 g18: 3455463 g19: 3445781 g20: 1827270 g21: 1407238 g22: 1231775 g23: 741335 g24: 866565 g25: 683699 g26: 495814 g27: 310778 g28: 310573 g29: 154621 g30: 0 gDouble: 2703117 --Rolls-- r1: 4497545 r2: 4492862 r3: 4497921 r4: 4158490 r5: 4150466 r6: 4311050 r7: 4313805 r8: 4318330 r9: 4320944 r10: 4323995 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1827270 Test card -3 direct victories: 1578922 Test card -3 luck victories: 310677 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6422191 9 cards: 33858 g10: 2358602 g11: 1593698 g12: 1654648 g13: 1708687 g14: 1760120 g15: 1799583 g16: 1834156 g17: 1857656 g18: 1865710 g19: 3447721 g20: 1825755 g21: 1425456 g22: 1095700 g23: 1077017 g24: 895757 g25: 712770 g26: 527838 g27: 340623 g28: 156740 g29: 156432 g30: 0 gDouble: 2545675 --Rolls-- r1: 4342581 r2: 4339029 r3: 4002456 r4: 4155213 r5: 4156305 r6: 4160404 r7: 4161796 r8: 4165049 r9: 4170059 r10: 4175932 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1825755 Test card -2 direct victories: 1591142 Test card -2 luck victories: 155946 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 6582745 9 cards: 7673 g10: 2359311 g11: 1592319 g12: 1651898 g13: 1709826 g14: 1760736 g15: 1800941 g16: 1833336 g17: 1857809 g18: 1864104 g19: 1858465 g20: 1826087 g21: 1432705 g22: 1269187 g23: 1096448 g24: 921424 g25: 740502 g26: 557858 g27: 371417 g28: 185531 g29: 0 g30: 0 gDouble: 2548799 --Rolls-- r1: 4185031 r2: 3996734 r3: 4000947 r4: 4003240 r5: 4001998 r6: 4004154 r7: 4010051 r8: 4013512 r9: 4021872 r10: 4028237 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1826087 Test card -1 direct victories: 1591168 Test card -1 luck victories: 0 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 4934432 9 cards: 192605 g10: 2356566 g11: 1591464 g12: 1652423 g13: 1707460 g14: 0 g15: 2935837 g16: 2920443 g17: 2880271 g18: 2817366 g19: 2902005 g20: 1546192 g21: 1097890 g22: 932225 g23: 772814 g24: 609632 g25: 611230 g26: 0 g27: 356789 g28: 237383 g29: 123864 g30: 0 gDouble: 2564104 --Rolls-- r1: 4343835 r2: 4344947 r3: 4357964 r4: 4276831 r5: 4301971 r6: 4317154 r7: 4052141 r8: 4073496 r9: 4085831 r10: 4090344 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1546192 Test card +/-6 direct victories: 2893080 Test card +/-6 luck victories: 610858 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 4971580 9 cards: 131128 g10: 2359278 g11: 1591665 g12: 1653627 g13: 1707894 g14: 1757044 g15: 0 g16: 2982631 g17: 2959382 g18: 2908315 g19: 2833653 g20: 1564809 g21: 1153603 g22: 988906 g23: 822656 g24: 657500 g25: 0 g26: 497500 g27: 366104 g28: 238014 g29: 116169 g30: 0 gDouble: 2757608 --Rolls-- r1: 4242605 r2: 4254316 r3: 4252159 r4: 4260313 r5: 4187149 r6: 3925343 r7: 3936321 r8: 3949945 r9: 3958791 r10: 4271760 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1564809 Test card +/-5 direct victories: 2954220 Test card +/-5 luck victories: 497123 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 4943436 9 cards: 83365 g10: 2360340 g11: 1592612 g12: 1652849 g13: 1708849 g14: 1758938 g15: 1798828 g16: 0 g17: 3019872 g18: 2981540 g19: 2924331 g20: 1585434 g21: 1064308 g22: 883337 g23: 883821 g24: 329154 g25: 549711 g26: 386170 g27: 386352 g28: 252878 g29: 124340 g30: 0 gDouble: 2471865 --Rolls-- r1: 4147254 r2: 4151000 r3: 4156431 r4: 4163629 r5: 3880584 r6: 3795031 r7: 3816419 r8: 4133506 r9: 3969249 r10: 3992034 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1585434 Test card +/-4 direct victories: 3074411 Test card +/-4 luck victories: 387313 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 4959442 9 cards: 48084 g10: 2357782 g11: 1594409 g12: 1653640 g13: 1708357 g14: 1757885 g15: 1800984 g16: 1833924 g17: 0 g18: 3048803 g19: 2994978 g20: 1603198 g21: 1139207 g22: 963675 g23: 516556 g24: 598754 g25: 598429 g26: 430986 g27: 266369 g28: 266387 g29: 130995 g30: 0 gDouble: 2661294 --Rolls-- r1: 4042161 r2: 4046363 r3: 4049587 r4: 3761166 r5: 3761731 r6: 4066985 r7: 3808971 r8: 3832791 r9: 3856138 r10: 3881044 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1603198 Test card +/-3 direct victories: 3165574 Test card +/-3 luck victories: 265437 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 5006299 9 cards: 22770 g10: 2356091 g11: 1593181 g12: 1652562 g13: 1708130 g14: 1759087 g15: 1798747 g16: 1834903 g17: 1858026 g18: 0 g19: 3054988 g20: 1622371 g21: 1199065 g22: 892465 g23: 850986 g24: 673964 g25: 488339 g26: 302453 g27: 303376 g28: 136619 g29: 136262 g30: 0 gDouble: 2360673 --Rolls-- r1: 3929209 r2: 3933291 r3: 3630553 r4: 3938814 r5: 3759423 r6: 3771040 r7: 3776843 r8: 3707323 r9: 3729676 r10: 3758783 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1622371 Test card +/-2 direct victories: 3231314 Test card +/-2 luck victories: 136824 10000000 games simulated. Results: Busts: 5092611 9 cards: 4350 g10: 2357816 g11: 1594868 g12: 1653943 g13: 1707816 g14: 1759160 g15: 1800853 g16: 1833956 g17: 1856109 g18: 1865916 g19: 0 g20: 1643193 g21: 1245526 g22: 1083084 g23: 910488 g24: 734690 g25: 555176 g26: 372815 g27: 186482 g28: 0 g29: 0 g30: 0 gDouble: 2545534 --Rolls-- r1: 3814814 r2: 3815490 r3: 3630655 r4: 3632534 r5: 3639025 r6: 3649851 r7: 3661274 r8: 3668711 r9: 3596569 r10: 3630574 --Victories-- Victories without using card: 1643193 Test card +/-1 direct victories: 3264196 Test card +/-1 luck victories: 0 More advanced simulation is still possible, but this is quite a good start. Results: +/-x cards have the best chance of victory, with +/-4, 5, and 6 having the highest percentages by small margins. Chance of victory without using a card is highest for the lower +/- cards. Getting an 11, or another value less than 15 but more than 10, on the table is less likely than getting a value larger than 15 but less than or equal to 20. (I'm not certain why this is) Cards by total chance of victory: +/-6, +/-4, +/-3, +/-5, +/-2, +/-1, -5, -6, -4, -3, -2, +1, +2, +3, +4, -1, +5, +6 Card Costs: (from Matthew Brown's Pazaak Guide) Tatooine Junix Nard, Cantina Qty Card Price --- ------ ----- 2 [+/-1] 200c 2 [+/-2] 150c 2 [+/-3] 125c 2 [+/-4] 100c Korriban Mika Dorin, Cantina Qty Card Price --- ------ ----- 1 [+/-1] 300c 1 [+/-2] 225c 1 [+/-3] 187c 1 [+/-4] 150c Manaan Shady Rodian, Ahto East Qty Card Price --- ------ ----- 1 [+/-1] 200c 1 [+/-2] 150c 2 [+/-3] 125c 2 [+1] 100c 1 [-1] 100c 2 [+2] 75c 1 [-2] 75c 3 [+/-6] 50c 3 [+3] 50c 3 [+4] 50c 2 [-3] 25c 2 [-4] 25c 4 [+5] 12c 4 [-5] 12c 5 [+6] 5c 5 [-6] 5c Dantooine Crattis Yurkal, Aratech Mercantile Qty Card Price --- ------ ----- 1 [+/-1] 200c 1 [+/-3] 125c 1 [-2] 75c 1 [+/-5] 75c 1 [-4] 25c 1 [-6] 5c Dantooine Sol'aa, Jedi Enclave Qty Card Price --- ------ ----- 1 [+/-2] 150c 2 [+/-4] 100c 2 [+1] 100c 1 [-1] 100c 3 [+/-5] 75c 2 [+2] 75c 1 [-2] 75c 3 [+3] 50c 3 [+4] 25c 2 [-3] 25c 2 [-4] 25c 4 [+5] 12c 4 [-5] 12c 5 [+6] 5c 5 [+6] 5c Taris Uriah, Lower City Cantina -need a Pazaak deck in order to buy cards from Uriah inf = infinite/unlimited quantity Qty Card Price --- ------ ----- 2 [+/-1] 200c 1 [+/-3] 125c inf [+1] 100c inf [+2] 75c inf [-2] 75c inf [+/-6] 50c inf [+3] 50c inf [+4] 25c inf [-4] 25c inf [+5] 12c inf [-5] 12c inf [+6] 6c inf [-6] 6c Taris Igear, Undercity Qty Card Price --- ------ ----- 1 [-2] 56c 1 [+2] 56c 1 [-3] 18c The best deck: -6 cards only cost 6c, and you can buy as many as you want from Uriah. With a 39.27% chance of victory they're a pretty good investment. -5 cards only cost 12c, and you can buy as many as you want from Uriah. With a 39.72% chance of victory they're a pretty good investment, just like -6 cards. +/-6 cards cost 50c. These are the best bang-for-you-buck cards, along with +/-5 cards, which cost 75c apiece. Generally speaking, any +/- cards you can pick up for free should be used. -5 or -6 cards should take up the rest of your deck. A good deck will have a variety of cards because having a duplicate card in your hand limits your options in the game. So the best hand would be +/-6, +/-5, +/-4, and +/-3. Because +/-2 and +/-1 are equally valuable and having them decreases your chances for duplicate cards, I'd say the best deck is: two +/-6 cards, two +/-5 cards, two +/-4 cards, two +/-3 cards, one +/-2, and one +/-1. Note: Variety is important in a pazaak deck to increase the chances of winning the first few games. Possible improvements to this investigation: This investigation into Pazaak probabilities could be improved by actually simulating full games with a procedure which decides whether or not to stand based on what another simulation is doing. With two different simulations with two different decks you could simulate actual pazaak games and discover deeper probability behaviors. There's also the fact that my simulation assumed that the pazaak deck in KOTOR had no limit to card types (even though several people have suggested there's 4 of each number 1-10). If I was wrong about this certain values found in my simulations may be slightly off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mator Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hi again! I've made an entirely new program that actually allows you to put two hands against each other and see which will win. It's still in need of a bit of work, but it's capable of better simulations than before. Here's what it looks like: The "match" play of 3 games with 1 hand is not yet coded, but soon I'll have written the code to do this as well! Here's some sample data: Show spoiler (hidden content - requires Javascript to show) Simulating 1000000 side-by-side games Player 1's hand: +/-6, +/-5, +/-4, +/-3 Player 2's hand: -5, +5, +3, -4 p1wins: 297820 p1busts: 49159 p1full: 9238 p2wins: 58397 p2busts: 275154 p2full: 22666 ties: 643783 -Mator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDR Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Even though I don't understand half of this stuff, I just wanted to say that what you're doing is nothing short of amazing. I'm surprised no one else thought of this earlier. Keep the simulations coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mator Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Even though I don't understand half of this stuff, I just wanted to say that what you're doing is nothing short of amazing. I'm surprised no one else thought of this earlier. Keep the simulations coming! Thanks LordDeathRay! It's really not all that complicated, I'm just having the computer play pazaak games over and over again and seeing what the chance of winning is. Between yesterday and today I've actually found a few other attempted pazaak simulations, though I don't really agree with their techniques or results. I feel their simulations weren't nearly as in-depth or accurate as mine are. Anywho, I'll keep working on this until there's no more work to be done, next update will probably be around midnight PST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth krunchy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 This is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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