Recession? Depression?

[Jae Onasi]

With the Dow down 40% from just one year ago, how bad is the recession/depression going to get? How widespread? What industries will survive and which ones will get hit so hard they might not survive? Discuss.

[Litofsky]

I can't say for sure, but I'd be willing to bet that the next President could have the power to turn the tide of the economy (and I'd even go so far as to say that the markets might even respond to one candidate making it over the other) by way of initiatives and federal funding.

 

If we do nothing, and the country as a whole goes deeper into debt, this recession (or whatever it is) will continue on, and could potentially devolve into a depression. Take note that the factor that got us out of the last depression was a World War. However, if the country takes some positive steps, such as getting off of our absolute addiction to foreign oil (and oil in general), I've got a feeling that things will rebound- maybe not completely, but the situation will get better (if we don't have to pay for $4.00s per gallon, I think that everyone will have extra spending money). I'd put my money of alternative energy sources make a big leap in the next few years (once more, depending on the next POTUS).

 

Industries that might not survive? If I had my way, I'd hope that the oil industry goes down for the count (assuming that we've developed alternatives that make it obsolete). Any other ones that might not make it? The insurance market's not doing to well right now, but there are a few companies that are holding on.

 

Perhaps the better question to ask is "Which companies will the Government allow to survive (by helping with money)?"

 

Besides that, I'll say that I believe if the next President doesn't tread lightly, we'll end up in a world of pain.

[Yar-El]

NBC called it a global recession. If we were in a depression, people would be taking numbers to get gas, more jobs would be lost, and everything would be at a standstill. I was listening to the BBC radio, and they said small buisnesses are not in a bad shape.

 

I just want President Bush to admit that we are in a recession or depression. They are in denial. Facing something straight on makes you stronger, but denying we have problems will only prolong recovery. I just want to hear him say the word recession or depression.

 

I hope everyone knows that this changes everything.

[Achilles]

I don't think I am alone when I say: we can't even begin to imagine the possible repercussions. One one hand, I don't think things will be nearly as bad as the Great Depression. On the other hand, I think there are many industries that have been propped up by artificial markets that might be in big trouble (I think of 20 or 30 restaurants and fast food places that I pass on my way to grocery store, etc.). We've lived relatively high on the hog and mostly on someone else's dime for quite some time and while I don't think the world is going to end, I do think the fall back down to earth might be more than some of us are prepared for.

[Totenkopf]

Remember the old addage: when your friend loses his job it's a recession, when you do it's a depression. We may end up with a recession like Japan did for quite some years after its market bubble burst back in the 80s/90s.

 

@Litofsky--would be a bit premature to call for the demise of the oil industry. Oil is too prevelent in modern goods to just be abandonned. Also, so long as another war isn't ginned up (by anyone) or OPEC doesn't manage to put the squeeze on oil output, the oil bubble may have finally burst for the forseeable future. Gas is already under $3.50/gal and dropping.

[Litofsky]

@Litofsky--would be a bit premature to call for the demise of the oil industry. Oil is too prevelent in modern goods to just be abandonned. Also, so long as another war isn't ginned up (by anyone) or OPEC doesn't manage to put the squeeze on oil output, the oil bubble may have finally burst for the forseeable future. Gas is already under $3.50/gal and dropping.

 

It was hastily thought of, but it's the end result I would like to see: the complete disuse of oil throughout the markets (replaced by a more eco-friendly product, or something that could substitute oil in other products). Right now, it would destroy the world. But in fifty or so years, who's to say what could or couldn't happen?

 

As for gas, I'm at the end of a pipeline (or rather, my area is), so gas is still around $3.70-ish.

[mimartin]

I'm going with deep recession. I'm hoping the media and those in Washington are doing their usual over hype. However, if some of these numbers are correct...

[Arcesious]

Where's Scotty to get you out of here when you really need him...?

[mimartin]

You could get through to Scotty, McCoy got the communicator jammed yelling. “Dammit George, I a doctor, not a economist.”

[Arcesious]

Then let's get Spock and Tuvok to team up and save humanity with logic.

[Tommycat]

Well I had been telling people we were in for a huge market correction for some time. People are silly with their homes. "My home is worth less than I'm paying for it, I may as well just let it go..." Dang... I had always been told that real estate was a long term investment... Flipping houses like they were doing just isn't right. It artificially inflated the market.

 

We're in for some trouble. That's a fact. Whether the next president will have much chance of fixing it, I have my doubts. We have too many darn near brain dead investors making obscene investments. I mean back as early as 98, I was telling people that they need to stop investing in companies that have no product. People were buying stock for tech companies that had no product except their stock. That's insane.

 

This last bubble was predicted in 01-02 that it was going to burst. House prices climbing over 100% in a year should be a nice warning sign that the market is artificially inflated. Then there were lenders that refused to work with people on their mortgages. They basically cut their own throats.

 

Really though, I don't envy the next president. While Obama and Biden would likely blame it all on the Republicans, and McCain and Palin would likely blame it all on the Democrats, the fact is it won't matter much to the people if they don't see a drastic improvement.

 

As for depression... I really don't think we're headed there... we have 6% unemployment... That isn't near the 25% we suffered in the depression. Relatively few banks have closed, and unlike the depression, this president was willing to provide money to the banking industry. Now.. the scary thing is we are looking at a possibility of the government taking control of the banks....

[KinchyB]

I'm excited!! This is going to be a great time to buy!! Houses...stocks in the near term (huge gains here if you have some extra capital floating around and pay attention to what the government does)...plus with all the penny pinching people are doing I'm hoping to see a price drop in the auto-industry as well. If so, I'm buying a new car next year!

 

Quite honestly, if you haven't over extended yourself you should be fine. People can find a job if they need one, but they need to get this "That job is beneath me" mentality out of the way. You're only a victim if you choose to be.

 

In regards to ARMs that seem to have been a major contributing factor in all this...there is enough blame to go around to everyone....the person who bought the house (Why buy a house you can't afford to begin with...? We really aren't the smartest nation around anymore), the brokers for enabling, the gov't for allowing...quite literally everyone.

 

BTW...Not the guy to come to for pity in this "crisis" aka "Time of opportunity"!

[Yar-El]

I don't think I am alone when I say: we can't even begin to imagine the possible repercussions. One one hand, I don't think things will be nearly as bad as the Great Depression. On the other hand, I think there are many industries that have been propped up by artificial markets that might be in big trouble (I think of 20 or 30 restaurants and fast food places that I pass on my way to grocery store, etc.). We've lived relatively high on the hog and mostly on someone else's dime for quite some time and while I don't think the world is going to end, I do think the fall back down to earth might be more than some of us are prepared for.

You are making some really good points. I remember hearing a BBC report that suggested consumerism it to blame. Another person on CNBC also felt that we had too many restaurants, retail stores, and supermarkets. They were both seeing the closure of redundant store chains. I guess we grew too fast too soon.

 

-- Added Edit --

Did the war on Iraq and Afghanistan also help in crippling the economy? Oil consumption, equipment, and other expenses. Could we fix our economic and resource problem by just ending one or both of the wars?