U.S. Deficit of 2009/2010?

[The Source]

U.S. Deficit of 2009/2010?

At the moment, I am writting about stressors from my adolescent life for an essay assignment. While looking back to the past, I can't help but wonder about some collations between the 1990s deficit and the one that is about to affect the US heavily. Let me know when I am wrong. Since I was an adolescent in the 90s, my percerption of events may be slightly off. These are going to go into question.

 

During the 1990s, we had the Gulf War and Desert Storm. Buisnesses were clossing every other day, and people had a hard time looking for jobs.

 

Since the beginning of 2000's, we had two wars, a technology bubble burst, a terrorist attack, corporate scandle, and have occured the largest deficit in American history.

 

Here is my question: When the hell is the deficit going to affect everyone in the Unites States? When will companies close again, and when will all this spending, George Bush is doing, creap up on us and bite? Did I miss something?

 

Do deficits accure after an administration leaves office? Will we be heavily affected by the deficit in 2009 or 2010?

 

I have a bad feeling about this...

[Darth InSidious]

When it gets to the point that the IMF won't lend any more, like over here where our deficit is in the region of 70bn pounds...

[Ztalker]

Sit back, and start getting bored ^^

 

A mate of mine talked about that last time..he studies economy.

He told me about the current situation in America:

 

This might be a bit hard, but this is what he said:

'Adolf Hitler said that every nation that wants to grow powerfull needs to start a war every 15-20 years. It was one of his fascistic ideals. After the second world war, there has only been one nation that has tried it:

America. This way, they need money. Huge amounts of money.'

 

He then continued with the the current economic situation:

'America has a huge money debt. It owes Asia and Europe many money, because of your economic status: YOu import more then you export. But because 'we' want America to buy our products, we lend America money, which they can buy are produtcs with. We are artificially keeping America from falling.''

 

He then concluded:

'The soapbel that is called America has three choises:

-Stop importing, and become a 'closed economy'

Consequences: Dollar will drop in value, poverty, etc.

-Keep on doing it this way

Consequenses: Economy will crash eventually

-Beat the cr*p out of Asia and Europe

Consequences: World War Three

 

NOTE:

This is NOT what i have said, but my mate, who studies Economy!

 

This is NOT my opinion.

[Darth InSidious]

Sounds like we'd better start re-armament over this side of the ocean...

[The Source]

I heard something similar.

 

From what I was told is that the leaders of my nation (The US) needs to have wars to fix the economy. However, I didn't know about its complexities.

 

What happens to all that war debt? How about the freetrading? I mean all this has to add up to a big bill that eventually needs to be paid.

 

I wonder if my country is going to war in order to break the economy, so that everyone will benifit from its aftermath.

[Det. Bart Lasiter]

This might be a bit hard, but this is what he said:

'Adolf Hitler said that every nation that wants to grow powerfull needs to start a war every 15-20 years. It was one of his fascistic ideals. After the second world war, there has only been one nation that has tried it:

America. This way, they need money. Huge amounts of money.'

Thomas Jefferson said that in order to keep our liberties an armed revolution should take place every 20 years.

 

I think it's not that bad of an idea, people generally need a single entity for an enemy, it keeps them content and makes them appreciate what they have. But then again, I have a lot of crap to do and I don't particularly like war/dying. Meh, there's no simple solution to this sort of thing.

 

As for the deficit, everything is like the 1990's, including the crime rate (more important in my opinion), it's been rising steadily since Bush and his brilliant economic tactics have plunged this country into the s****r.

[Point Man]

I wonder if my country is going to war in order to break the economy, so that everyone will benifit from its aftermath.

It is not the aftermath of war that stimulates the economy. It is wartime production and spending. That's what brought the US out of the Great Depression. However, we only have the spending in the US now. Production is done elsewhere.

 

The real problem with the US economy is that it is based on consumption, not production. As long as we spend more and more, the economists say the economy is fine. However, we are spending borrowed money. I don't see the next great economic crisis coming because the government is overspending, but because individuals are overspending. Just like in 1929, the margin calls are going to come in. Creditors are going to want their money back, and there will come a limit to the number of times people can borrow to pay off previous debts. At some time, the house of cards will collapse. I am working to make sure my debt load is reduced before that happens.

 

Regarding you speculation on the reasons for war, I may be just acting like the good soldier here, but I honestly believe we are at war because we are trying to stop the people who would attack our country. It is not a clean and neat war, but I believe it is necessary. I do not want to explain to my grandchildren how we had the opportunity to destroy the terrorist organizations but lacked the resolve.

[Jae Onasi]

@jmac--the rates of _violent_ crime have actually gone down tremendously in the last 10ish years or so--I'd have to go double check the data on that to get exact numbers and appropriate references.

 

This is sort of 'stream of consciousness' so bear with me--it's not going to flow smoothly. The economy has gone through a number of cycles, and the 80's, 90's, and 00's are no exception to that rule. We had a pretty big stock crash in '87 that started (or brought into the open) a recession that probably lasted til about early 90's (as best as I can recall--I was in grad/professional school at the time, so my time was eaten up studying rather than following the economy). Hence the problems with unemployment during the early 90's.

We ended up in Desert Storm/Gulf War because Iraq invaded Kuwait and scared the bejeezers out of them, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and Saddam Hussein decided to thumb his nose at the world. We got in and out pretty quickly, perhaps too quickly. We didn't get into the Gulf War to improve our economy so much as we did to protect Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The economy started taking off about mid 90's and went nuts in '97-'99 or so. There was some federal budget surplusses in the late '90's because of the huge amounts of tax revenue the gov't was bringing in from the increased income and stock profits. However, the stock market was very overvalued '99-'00 (especially tech--some stocks were commanding huge prices when the companies hadn't even made a dime, and in fact were still showing losses as start-ups), and actually started to go down I think March of '00 (i.e., before Bush was elected--while I think Bush could have done many things better, he can't be blamed for that one). People were buying stock in this huge frenzy just to buy stock, not because they were good stocks. The enormous profits attracted those with no scruples, and with reduced accountability for the books, things like the Enron crisis happened. The stock market was already dropping quickly when 9/11 hit, and the terrorist crisis rocked the economy even more--I think we're just now starting to come out of it. The trade deficit and the budget deficits and enormous debt may kill it, though.

The thing that scares the caca out of me is the pending Social Security and Medicare collapse--with all the baby boomers approaching retirement age and the costs of health care sky-rocketing, we're going to be in big trouble in about 20 years or less. I think it's going to be bankrupt by the time I hit retirement, and the money I'm paying into the system now is going to be gone, and my taxes are going to go way up to fund the program for the baby boomers. Unless I'm able to privately fund my retirement, I'm going to be SOL when I hit 68.

[Char Ell]

^^^

Wow! I think that was a fairly accurate synopsis of the past 25 years of American history. Nicely done, Jae Onasi!

Here is my question: When the hell is the deficit going to affect everyone in the Unites States? When will companies close again, and when will all this spending, George Bush is doing, creap up on us and bite? Did I miss something?

If anyone really knew the answer to that question then that person should be running the Federal Reserve as Alan Greenspan's replacement.

 

I for one don't know when but feel certain that it will have a significant adverse impact on the American economy at some point in time unless measures are taken now to curb government spending as well as the current account deficit. IMO the American banking system and economy is being bankrolled to an unhealthy large degree by foreign investment, because these non-domestic investors perceived our economy as stable and of value. If foreign investors ever change their tune and stop investing in the U.S. then we can expect some serious economic pain in the form of job losses, company bankruptcy and liquidation, and the U.S. government likely defaulting on its debt obligations (this would be a first). Our country, both its government and its people, are writing checks that we currently can't cash.

[MdKnightR]

Just a humble opinion....we would all be better off if the majority of voters in this country would realize that voting Democrat and Republican only prolongs our problems. Vote Libertarian!

[Ztalker]

This might be 'fun' to add:

Wall street has a clock that shows the amount of US dollars it owes the world:

 

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 27 Aug 2005 at 05:44:27 AM GMT is:

The estimated population of the United States is 296,839,853, so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,749.90.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $1.70 billion per day since September 30, 2004! Concerned?

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/.../zihlmann090205.html

 

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The 'clock' i was talking about ^^

[Cygnus Q'ol]

At the current rate, by year 2017 there won't even be social security.

(it may even be sooner)

 

That will be the point at which the $ paid out will exceed the $ available for the currently structured social security program at this population growth rate.

 

I will not have retired by then.

Nowadays, you gotta save your own money for your retirement.

[Det. Bart Lasiter]

@jmac--the rates of _violent_ crime have actually gone down tremendously in the last 10ish years or so--I'd have to go double check the data on that to get exact numbers and appropriate references.

I was referring to the past few years (coincidence-or Bush administration?). In particular, I was referring to murder, which is has gone up in the past few years, 2004, for instance, had the highest murder rate per capita since the late 80's/early 90's.

[Ztalker]

Well....if owning a gun is legal, what would you expect?

If the situation is unsafe (Terrorism etc) people buy it, get suspicous sooner, and more people will get killed.

 

I;m not saying it's wrong to own a gun, but maybe you should do a test of competence before you give a M-16 to a rascistic fool or a gang-member.

[Astrotoy7]

methinks y'all think too much...

 

until you are in a position to make changes you may as well not get stressed about it, because all stress does is harm your health and frazzle your libido

 

so unless your planning to become a media/oil mogul, a politician or organised crime lord, most of what we do isnt going to cause any ripples at a national level.

 

In discussions like this, I always remember the immortal words of ICE-T:

 

Money controls the world and that's it...and once you got it - then you can talk ****.. -The "Power" Album - 1988

 

check out Darlene on the album cover, BAM!

 

mtfbwya

[Jae Onasi]

^

I respectfully disagree with the above. You _can_ make a difference. There are many grass roots issues that have turned the tide that 'regular people' like us got involved in. You didn't have to be an oil mogul to get some of the drunk driving laws or Jessica's law passed--you just had to be concerned enough about the problem to contact the people who could do something about it. When enough people make their voices heard on some issues, Congress does listen--we're the ones electing them, after all, and if they do something a large number of their constituents don't like, they're not going to get re-elected. So, they do listen. I've called my Congressman several times on some issues and have gotten responses each time. In fact, his office contacted me back several months later after one of my calls to ask if we would write up our experience with the HIPPA laws so that he had some stories to bring to the committee so some changes could be made.

The price, for that, of course, is staying informed about current events and what Congress is doing, and being prepared to make an effective and reasoned opinion to send to them.

[Astrotoy7]

Jae - Im not talking about community or even state level action. I myself work in community health and public health promotion. Teams I have worked in have made some positive changes to the implementation of healthcare and services in our state/region, particularly for low income earners, refugees etc. As part of my masters degree Im working on a project that is a partnership between many organisations including Unicef and Oxfam. Part of my work is in the logistics to help provide Islamic kids in communities in the Phillipines and South Thailand get clean water and educational facilities up and running. Its going OK, but govt agencies and slow resources inevitably mean that we can never do enough.

 

At the end of the day, governments fund or implement these initiatives and governments have agendas - simple as that. Having been sucker punched by numerous govt agencies and multinationals who promise to fund things and dont (because it suddenly doesnt fit into their new policy structure or they get re-elected etc etc) it really stings because their benevolence is never really that at all.

 

It *always* *always* *always* comes down to money. Seriously. This is especially so for implementing things in under-developed nations.

 

still, I applaud your vigilance. It's nice to know some of you are keeping an eye on those dirty rats congress members

 

But still, ICE-T's comment above is 100% on the money

 

mtfbwya

[Jae Onasi]

I don't disagree about the money part at all--the more you have, the more influence it seems to afford. And I can understand your disappointment at being told 'yes, we'll fund this' only to have the rug pulled out from under you. Sometimes, it's unfortunately a matter of having enough money and connections to bribe the right people (I would say it seems to happen more in third world countries, but I think it happens likely just as much here in the US, too--being my cynical self here. )

I have no illusions that I'd ever be able to sway the entire Congress to do things the way I'd like to see them done, since I'm a peon in the great scheme of things. However, sometimes a bunch of us peons get together on an issue, and suddenly changes get made. Money certainly makes it much easier, but I don't think you _have_ to have a bazillion bucks to effect some change.

[Det. Bart Lasiter]

Bust still, ICE-T's comment above is 100% on the money

Ice-T is infallible.

[HerbieZ]

Whats a deficit anyway.

[Astrotoy7]

HerbieZ... It's funny it's me who's telling you this but I dont think this was meant to be a diss America/Bush thread.... you're relatively new here so probably arent aware of the unwritten rule "be cautious in threads featuring politics and/or religion" !! I think such discussions can only be conducted rationally at the Senate Chambers, but that's just me

 

This is why I have been focusing my discussion on ICE-T and Darlene

 

mtfbwya

[HerbieZ]

Yeah i got banned of the offical Sony board for saying something apparantly political. I hate politics. Point Taken, A more logical question posed!