Darth Avlectus Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/06/18/korea.gates/index.html http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,527020,00.html Figuring we talked about the sabre rattling going on (or more like Radio Edit -PG-13 Forum -mimmartin ) in the thread about Iran, I figured this was off topic to Iran. So here we go. Generally speaking, we know Kim Jong Il is about to keck. Going a bit war whacky, he's beting his chest. Unfortunately, they do supposedly have long range missile capability, if as-yet-untested. He proposes to make fireworks out of Hawaii on our (America's) independence day, Jul. 4th. I'm kinda 50/50 on this. Bloodthirsty? Maybe. I just think China isn't quite friends wityh the US. But whatever. Point here: Given the explanations on probabilities of N. Korea actually following through by some of you, this may be just as likely an agitation. Not to say we should ignore it--quite the opposite. My contention, somewhat, that the one that'll get us is either 1) that which we do not see coming 2) the nutcase under pressure we just couldn't "talk" out of it. It is a scary prospect. I say we'll see what goes down. Many think it is merely a blunder, but we all know the possibilities for disaster are there. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allronix Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/06/18/korea.gates/index.html http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,527020,00.html Figuring we talked about the sabre rattling going on (or more like EDIT ) in the thread about Iran, I figured this was off topic to Iran. So here we go. Generally speaking, we know Kim Jong Il is about to keck. Going a bit war whacky, he's beting his chest. Unfortunately, they do supposedly have long range missile capability, if as-yet-untested. He proposes to make fireworks out of Hawaii on our (America's) independence day, Jul. 4th. I'm kinda 50/50 on this. Bloodthirsty? Maybe. I just think China isn't quite friends wityh the US. But whatever. Point here: Given the explanations on probabilities of N. Korea actually following through by some of you, this may be just as likely an agitation. Not to say we should ignore it--quite the opposite. My contention, somewhat, that the one that'll get us is either 1) that which we do not see coming 2) the nutcase under pressure we just couldn't "talk" out of it. It is a scary prospect. I say we'll see what goes down. Many think it is merely a blunder, but we all know the possibilities for disaster are there. Thoughts? The sad part is that the scenario could end up like this: 1. The nutter of N. Korea sends a bomb to Hawaii. Maybe we intercept, maybe a lot of innocent folks die. 2. We answer back in the form of the Pacific fleet and Trident subs. 3. A lot of innocents in N. Korea die while that SOB is sipping soju in his undisclosed location. 4. China gets ticked off that we kicked their poorly-trained mutt, and decides to cancel on all the loans. 5. US goes bankrupt from 20+ years of Reganomics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderQ Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 This is indeed a scary prospect....something North Korea would definately do right now, at least because we are searching their ships. War may not be too far away... But I'm thinking that if they launch, our missile defenses will just take the nuke out long before the thing gets close to Hawaii, our tech is that good:D But anyways, if they did that, it would inevitably make everyone, and I mean everyone, possibly even the Chinese and the Russians, will jump on N. Korea for their actions. They're not exactly in a winning situation in my opinion. But the future has yet to come. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urluckyday Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 While I do think that China would be peeved if we retaliated against N. Korea...they're not stupid people and would have to realize that it wasn't unprovoked. In those stories...both Russia and China urged them to return to talks...which is important to note b/c it proves that even Korea's "allies" don't want any major problems... While we owe China a lot of money...our economies are very intertwined and if one fails...they both fail...it's a simple concept...we owe them money...they need us around to owe them money... The eyes of the world are on N. Korea...but for all of the wrong reasons. I hope it does not come to retaliation...but it would be necessary for the US (and its allies) to do so if it came to it...I think it's time every country takes a good look and realizes that the US has always been there backing them up and never asking anything in return and considering the same...the UN needs to realize it can't be effective without the US's help and that they need to support them. Something still troubles me...I was under the impression that N. Korea hasn't launched a successful missile yet...especially long-range ones... Too bad they just don't learn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Web Rider Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Something still troubles me...I was under the impression that N. Korea hasn't launched a successful missile yet...especially long-range ones... This is what I was wondering as well. I seem to recall that most missile tests N Korea has done recently have been failures, with their missiles breaking up before their desired distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Det. Bart Lasiter Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 also note that the desired distance you mentioned would fall short of hawaii anyway iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderQ Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Never mind, I change what I say earlier. The North Koreans will launch a nuke at Hawaii. And it won't make it halfway. If we didn't shoot it out of the sky by then....I feel that North Korea is bluffing in their threat....but then again, we wouldn't want to assume that they are not dangerous. Even if they can't hit American soil, they can take the lives of South Koreans, Japanese, any of their enemies in the Asiatic area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Web Rider Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Never mind, I change what I say earlier. The North Koreans will launch a nuke at Hawaii. And it won't make it halfway. If we didn't shoot it out of the sky by then....I feel that North Korea is bluffing in their threat....but then again, we wouldn't want to assume that they are not dangerous. Even if they can't hit American soil, they can take the lives of South Koreans, Japanese, any of their enemies in the Asiatic area. Assuming those missiles aren't intercepted or failures as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderQ Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 ^True, there is that possibility. But still, America's missiles are known to be more technologically advanced, and probably more reliable then North Korea's pocket nukes. Let's just hope that there won't be a need to use Nuclear weapons. But sadly, it just seems that we're going down the war path, with North Korea shouting threats and tensions rising within the UN, if there is a war, I have a feeling it won't be a quick one. The world is just setting itself up for something really destructive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urluckyday Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 ^That's a given fact. America was the first to master nuclear weapons and it still maintains that...while I'm not necessarily proud of that fact...it is something that N. Korea has to view... N. Korea is a new contender on the grounds of nuclear warfare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderQ Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Indeed, N. Korea is very new to the 'Nuclear Club,' so to say. It would be wise for them to break their isolation and try to make allies, so as to prevent a Nuclear War, but Kim Jong Il is undoubtedly a madman, as we see it right now. It has been said many times already that to have nuclear weapons in the hands of a dictator who's mental state hasn't even been confirmed to us yet, is a pretty big crisis, should it come to war. America has been the only country to use Nukes in war. We only used them twice, the Japanese death toll was catastrophic. The Second World War ended because of that. Let's hope that we should never have to do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purple_tentacle_ Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Scary...Real Scary. Another thing is that there is a possibility that we go to war with Korea and start another world war maby even resulting in a large world wide nuclear war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mur'phon Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Since NK lacks a lot of the neccesary tech to carry out that threat (lack of a delivery system being just one), I'm not terribly worried. As for Kim being a madman... Tell me, what exactly has he lost by acting the way he does, and then tell me what he has gained. He might be one of the biggest disasters to befal NK, but he certainly isn't insane. @CommanderQ, nukes don't really need to be "advanced" at all, as long as they can strike close to where you point them. And the only kit needed to awoid missile defence is the ability of nukes to drop decoys (which are very low tech). Missile defence, as far as I know has only been tested on missiles without decoys where they knew exactly where they where going, and even then they often missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawathehutt Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 What are they going to do, javelin it at us? And its not going to be a suprise attack so its not like there will be a shortage of missile defenses sitting around the area ready to atomize any decoy or real nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderQ Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 @Mur'phon, True. With Nukes, it's hard to miss the target....if it can reach the target, that is the key-point here, N. Korea has yet to bring their nuclear weapons up-to-date, there's no garuntee that if they launch, that it won't jsut plop into the middle of the Pacific Ocean long before it's even within range to cause any sort of damage. {Also, concerning the decoys, they are rather low in tech, very correct, missile defenses can still hit their target. Let's just hope they do should worse come to worse:D} Perhaps you're right though, this could just be more sabre-rattling, but we shouldn't underestimate how far they are willing to go. Any threat of a nuclear strike should be treated with the utmost care. Even if they lack the necessary tech, we shouldn't assume what will happen. We must be on our gaurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JediAthos Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Personally, for all his talk, I don't thing Kim Jong Il has the intestinal fortitude to directly attack the United States. That would an overt act of war and no one, not even China, would be able to say a word to America when we blew North Korea back to the stone age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcesious Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 I'm not saying that the US is invulnerable, but if North Korea plans to launch an ICMB, it would get shot down pretty easily. That is, unless Kim Jong IL gets his hands on Russian missile tech or something equivilant... For example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mur'phon Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 but we shouldn't underestimate how far they are willing to go. Willing to go to achieve what? So far Kim has been willing to go very far indeed to to pry things from the rest of the world, but he has yet to do anything AFAIK that is against the rulers's interests. Missile defence: Nuclear missile goes into space, launches dozens of decoys (simple baloons for instance) as well as a warhead, since this is space, they will move about equally fast, look just about alike, and this is only a single missile. This is just an example of the simplest decoy, and even it is hard to guard against. Furthermore, would you mind showing any sources that the missile defence actually work? Because all the test I have seen have shown that it's unreliable even against a single missile without decoys, and theese are missile launched by the U.S itself, and as such it didn't exactly come as a surprise. @Arc: No worries, Russia is even less in favor of spreading nuclear weapons than the US. @China: China is nice to NK only because it shares a border, should NK collapse, China will get refugee hell, and since nuclear hell is worse, China might well join the bombing if NK launch a nuke. I think it's time every country takes a good look and realizes that the US has always been there backing them up and never asking anything in return and considering the same... Huh? Last I checked the US was like every other country, doing what it thinks is in its own (or its government's) interest. Would be interesting if you could back that up. the UN needs to realize it can't be effective without the US's help and that they need to support them. The UN is a collection of countries acting in their own self interest (yes, this includes the US), if the US wants the countries on its side, it'll have to make it in said countries interest to do so. To expect anything else is naive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderQ Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 Willing to go to achieve what? So far Kim has been willing to go very far indeed to to pry things from the rest of the world, but he has yet to do anything AFAIK that is against the rulers's interests. Missile defence: Nuclear missile goes into space, launches dozens of decoys (simple baloons for instance) as well as a warhead, since this is space, they will move about equally fast, look just about alike, and this is only a single missile. This is just an example of the simplest decoy, and even it is hard to guard against. Furthermore, would you mind showing any sources that the missile defence actually work? Because all the test I have seen have shown that it's unreliable even against a single missile without decoys, and theese are missile launched by the U.S itself, and as such it didn't exactly come as a surprise. What are they trying to achieve you ask? We can't possibly know. Kim Jong Il successfully isolated his country, he achieved that. But on his other reasons, I'm not sure anyone has a girm hold on that. Does he just want to make sure the media doesn't forget him? Could he be trying to maintain his hold as Supreme Leader, thus threatening the US and South Korea with nuclear war? Or perhaps reach his friends in the Middle East? Does he just want to wipe out his dreaded enemies? We don't know. His recent Nuclear tests got America's attention, and when the US moved to check all out-going ships and he threatened Nuclear War, he got the UN's attention. He obviously wants something, other then seeing his face in the news. One doesn't step up nuclear research and not have a good reason for it. We'll all figure out what his true objective is eventually, perhaps very soon. That is a disturbing thought. http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=15967 That is one link I found concerning missile defense. There were a few others, but I chose this one. Now I understand that you may not completely believe anything the US says concerning these type of tests, but you asked for a link, and I believe this one may help. 7 out of..I believe 8 tests were successful. This may differ in a real combat situation, but NK's pocket nukes would probably be at about the same difficulty without decoys. Now, I thought about what you said about decoys, and did a little research on the lower-tech light decoys{which NK would use if they launched a missile}. You were correct that even these light decoys could throw off even the most advanced of missiles. This doesn't render the missile defense unreliable, as I did read on one test that used a single decoy{a very small test} and the dummy missile was destroyed, evading the decoy. Still, this may be just a matter of luck. It's all up in the air I suppose...{forgive the pun:D} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urluckyday Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 ^He's insane and he's actually thinks that nuclear weapons are the best way to bargain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcesious Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 If the nuke idea doesn't work, he can also make threats with chemical weapons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rake Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 I agree with murph, Kim most likely isn't insane. I mean the man has successfully stayed in power a long time. And it's not that hard to figure out why any nation would want nuclear weapons: as a shield. As soon as a nation gets nukes, it essentially becomes immune to land invasions. Especially for a small country like North Korea that has many enemies, and could easily be defeated in a ground war, it's smart for them to develop nukes ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriggerGod Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 If the nuke idea doesn't work, he can also make threats with chemical weapons. yeah, thats an acceptable substitute. Instead of having the bodies of our Hawaiians decimated, we can have them fall ill to an artificial illness that they made specifically to kill their enemies. Kim just wants his country to be recognized world wide as a world power, one that can make the US army and the British navy quake in their boots at the mention of their name. I doubt he'll actually be stupid enough to fire it off. But we'll have to look for places where Kim can get a good seat of the fireworks if he actually does fire them off. He'll want to savor the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderQ Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 I agree with murph, Kim most likely isn't insane. I mean the man has successfully stayed in power a long time. Well, I imagine he uses the famous Communist tactic of killing off or sending any opposition to the Labor Camps. Can't really have much competition if everyone against you is either dead or broken. I mean, that's the way Stalin handled his problems, he was in power for awhile. Then there would be the way Kim Jong Il practically brainwashes his people. Constant rallies, indoctrination, reeducation, oh, and everyone wakes up to the Glorious sound of marching music. That could help his rule a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urluckyday Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 I agree with murph, Kim most likely isn't insane. I mean the man has successfully stayed in power a long time. While I don't mean to be contradictory...but don't you think that Hitler was insane? And while Kim Jong Il isn't following some crazy plan to destroy a race (that we know of), he has followed many of the same patterns that we've seen in Hitler, Saddam, Idi Amin, etc. by failing to understand - after several years of sanctions and international shunning - how the world really works... You'd have to be crazy or just so caught up on your own pride to continue what he has done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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