Uh Oh! Georgia 2-0 Russia

[jonathan7]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4485527.ece

 

Escalation is unfortunately looking inevitable.

[mur'phon]

Damn you for beating me to it:xp:

Some more info

 

Anyway, this will prove quite the test for the wests claim that they are helping/protecting former eastern block countries. Let's hope they pass it, and that Dima grows a spine large enough to make a diplomatic solution possible.

[jonathan7]

Damn you for beating me to it:xp:

Some more info

 

Anyway, this will prove quite the test for the wests claim that they are helping/protecting former eastern block countries. Let's hope they pass it, and that Dima grows a spine large enough to make a diplomatic solution possible.

 

I hope we move into Protect Georgia, but if we do or not is another matter; If I was Brown, I would already have Euro fighters securing Georgian Airspace.

[Arátoeldar]

Better Send in the Ghost Recon Team.

 

Ghost Recon begins in 2008, with civil unrest in Russia. Ultra-nationalists have seized power in Moscow, with plans to rebuild the Iron Curtain. Their first step is clandestine support of rebel factions in Georgia and the Baltic States. This is where the Ghosts come in: to silence the rebellion. Armed with some of the most advanced weaponry in the world, the soldiers of the Ghost Recon force are covertly inserted into Eastern Europe and given specific missions to curtail the rebel actions and overthrow their benefactors.

 

The game's storyline stems from political turmoil that came to light a few years earlier, in which the Ultra-nationalist regime came to power and placed its leader, Dmitri Arbatov, as Russia's president. By 2007, the threat posed by the Arbatov Administration became clear. Russia forms an alliance called the Russian Democratic Union (RDU), which is made up of the previously conquered countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Together, they launch a campaign to revive the long-dissolved Soviet Union by taking back all of the former Soviet republics.

 

It's eerie at how close Tom Clancy at being right.

[SW01]

I hope we move into Protect Georgia, but if we do or not is another matter; If I was Brown, I would already have Euro fighters securing Georgian Airspace.

 

That would only make things worse, and draw us into the conflict as well. Relations between Russia and ourselves haven't been great since the Pollonium 210 incident - we would be asking to be hit.

 

From the article above, I must say that I believe the Russian Federation to be the injured party. Georgian troops attacked S. Ossetia, Russian citizens were killed. Not to mention the fact that 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed by Georgian comrades in the same unit, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

 

Read this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

 

South Ossetia has been semi-independent for over a decade, and the peoplewant to break away from Georgia. It is interesting that some of us in the West support Georgia in crushing seperatism, but condemn others that have done the same.

[jonathan7]

That would only make things worse, and draw us into the conflict as well. Relations between Russia and ourselves haven't been great since the Pollonium 210 incident - we would be asking to be hit.

 

And who's fault is it that relations haven't been good? Don't see us assassinating anyone in Russia do you?

 

From the article above, I must say that I believe the Russian Federation to be the injured party. Georgian troops attacked S. Ossetia, Russian citizens were killed. Not to mention the fact that 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed by Georgian comrades in the same unit, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

 

Read this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

 

South Ossetia has been semi-independent for over a decade, and the peoplewant to break away from Georgia. It is interesting that some of us in the West support Georgia in crushing seperatism, but condemn others that have done the same.

 

May I suggest a great bit more reading from you into this situation... Why are Russian Peacekeepers in Georgia? If Georgia needs peacekeepers, do you think they would really go to the Russians?

 

Murph - given you probably have the best and most widely read background, you fancy cutting in?

[jawathehutt]

Better Send in the Ghost Recon Team.

 

 

 

It's eerie at how close Tom Clancy at being right.

 

Ha thats exactly what I thought when I saw it

[SW01]

And who's fault is it that relations haven't been good? Don't see us assassinating anyone in Russia do you?

 

That is very true, and I do not support what Russia did, nor do I condemn our reaction, but all the same I do not fancy the idea of being drawn into a war with one of the most powerful military forces in the world! Our forces are already engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq (and Iran soon enough if Georgie has his way).

 

The 'unofficial' referendum is a complicating factor here. That BBC News article shows that South Ossetia has been verging on independence since the Soviet Union fell, and that the majority of people in South Ossetia support seperatism. Had it been a minority trying to force independence with no real basis, I would be supporting Georgia. In this case, I cannot see how I can.

 

Also: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm

An overview of South Ossetia's past and present allegiance to Russia and opposition to Georgia, along with mention of a war to break away 16 years ago.

[jonathan7]

That is very true, and I do not support what Russia did, nor do I condemn our reaction, but all the same I do not fancy the idea of being drawn into a war with one of the most powerful military forces in the world! Our forces are already engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq (and Iran soon enough if Georgie has his way).

 

Moral positions aside, Russia one of the most powerful military forces in the world? No! Not any more besides, what risk do you think they pose to the UK - Britain has a more advanced air force; there is a large ammount of land and sea between us; and our Navy is more advanced - Russia hold numerical advantage - but that means nothing if you control the air, finally neither side would use Nukes, and I wasn't proposing Britain went to war; just make sure the Russians knew they couldn't bomb Tibillisi. There is a difference between establishing a boundary and defending, and attacking.

 

The 'unofficial' referendum is a complicating factor here. That BBC News article shows that South Ossetia has been verging on independence since the Soviet Union fell, and that the majority of people in South Ossetia support seperatism. Had it been a minority trying to force independence with no real basis, I would be supporting Georgia. In this case, I cannot see how I can.

 

Also: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/3797729.stm

An overview of South Ossetia's past and present allegiance to Russia and opposition to Georgia, along with mention of a war to break away 16 years ago.

 

It still remains something Russian troops shouldn't be involved in - I will let murph post, before commenting further

[mur'phon]

From the article above, I must say that I believe the Russian Federation to be the injured party. Georgian troops attacked S. Ossetia, Russian citizens were killed. Not to mention the fact that 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed by Georgian comrades in the same unit, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

 

First, never ever trust what government oficals on both sides of this conflict say. I do not doubt the fact that S. Ossetia was attacked, only the casualties.

 

South Ossetia has been semi-independent for over a decade, and the peoplewant to break away from Georgia.

 

Too bad that the a third of the population is Georgian, and that the "country" is a patchwork of Georgian villages run by Tiblisi and Ossetian villages run by Tskhinvali. And if you refer to the "referendum" they had in 2006, then you might want to ask yourself how 99% could be in favor of independence.

 

Now, a little info about South Ossetia seem to be in order. SO is one of the poorest places in Europe, most people are subsistence farming in order to survive. Now how can such a place have the cash needed for a functioning state? Simple, they get almost two thirds from it directly from Russia. Another third is gained from taxing goods passing through from Russia. As for who runs the place, it's a mix betwen Russian oficals, and local smuglig lords (not only legal goods pass through from Russia).

As for the Russian peace keepers, they are there as much to scare other former satelites as they are there to defend their puppets. Georgia is on track to join NATO, and have been one of the most pro-western countries in the eastern bloc. Russia sees this as a nice opportunity to show the rest of the former satelites just how little protection the west provides.

 

It is interesting that some of us in the West support Georgia in crushing seperatism, but condemn others that have done the same.

 

I do not have a problem with seperatism, I do however, have a problem when it's used as a guise by one country to grab parts of another.

 

J7: I'm afraid you're wrong concerning the strenght of Russias military power, their tech have always been based on the "max bang for your buck" philosophy, and tech wise parts of it matches Brittains, together with a lot more troops, Brittain wouln't really stand a chance. Russia vs the EU is a different story however.

[jonathan7]

<snip>

 

Thanks for your summation and clarification of the problem; I knew you would be better able to do it than me

 

J7: I'm afraid you're wrong concerning the strenght of Russias military power' date=' their tech have always been based on the "max bang for your buck" philosophy, and tech wise parts of it matches Brittains, together with [b']a lot[/b] more troops, Brittain wouln't really stand a chance. Russia vs the EU is a different story however.

 

Hmmm, Perhaps, I'm behind, but I was still under the impression the Russian military hardware was in a state of decay and that the Euro-Fighter is the most advanced warp plane anywhere outside of America.

 

I would however still argue that Britain has air superiority; I was also under the impression the UK's subs were better than Russia's - its academic, as I don't think in the current climate a war would ever occur between the UK and Russia, regardless of how frosty the diplomacy became.

[SW01]

Both sides in this conflict are guilty of one thing or another - it seems easy to see both sides:

 

Georgia is entitled to protect its borders, but probaly shouldn't have launched an assault.

 

Russia has the right to protect its citizens, but the accusations that it is trying to undermine Georgia, and that it armed the rebels, are very concerning.

 

I agree with the UN and EU positions on negotiating peace, but in this situation the UN cannot possibly act - Russia will use its veto.

 

If it came to war between Russia and Georgia, Russia would run over Georgia easily. There was an interesting point (I forget where) that the Georgian President chose now to attack while Bush is still in office.

 

Mur'phon:

Didn't know the referendum result was that high - it IS absurd.

 

To All:

Do you think that Obama would give military support to Georgia? For that matter, would Bush be prepared to?

 

Finally, China's position - call off all conflicts for the Olympics!

[mur'phon]

Georgia is entitled to protect its borders, but probaly shouldn't have launched an assault.

 

It's not just about the borders, it's also the 1/3 of SOs population that is Georgian, and that a part of what it considers it's territory is in effect a dictatorship controlled by a different country. Add a number of russian "manouvers" across the border (once dropping "something").

 

Russia has the right to protect its citizens, but the accusations that it is trying to undermine Georgia, and that it armed the rebels, are very concerning.

 

It's citizens? I thought you said they wanted independence.

 

There was an interesting point (I forget where) that the Georgian President chose now to attack while Bush is still in office.

 

That was no doubt a contributing factor.

 

Finally, China's position - call off all conflicts for the Olympics

 

If the fighting drags on, that will probably also be Russias position too, Sochi is not far from the border.

[MdKnightR]

I say we stay out of it. So much of the world's ills have been caused by our meddling in affairs that are none of our business.

[Web Rider]

I would however still argue that Britain has air superiority; I was also under the impression the UK's subs were better than Russia's - its academic, as I don't think in the current climate a war would ever occur between the UK and Russia, regardless of how frosty the diplomacy became.

 

Russia retains the record, and continues to construct some of the largest and power powerful subs in the world. In terms of length, NOBODY has built a bigger sub.

 

I for one am for not getting involved. The US does not need a new proxy war with Russia, particularly with current Russian government attitudes towards the US.

[SW01]

It's citizens? I thought you said they wanted independence.

 

They do, but a majority of SO citizens are Russian citizens, apparently, and it is one of the reasons the Russian Government gave for sending in armour.

 

MdKnightR: It is a very tempting option, but apparently there are many reasons the West should be concerned:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4486297.ece

[Nedak]

We should stay out. We're already in Iraq for christ sakes.

The last thing we need is to mess with an extremely powerful army.

 

Also might I add that Georgia is ****ed

[SW01]

We should stay out. We're already in Iraq for christ sakes.

 

And Afghanistan.

 

Also might I add that Georgia is ****ed

 

Without a LOT of help - yes, it is.

[mur'phon]

They do, but a majority of SO citizens are Russian citizens, apparently, and it is one of the reasons the Russian Government gave for sending in armour.

 

My point was, they don't tend to see themsleves as part of Russia either, that is sorta why they want autonomy. And I would like you to define Russian citizen, SO became part of Russia at the same time as the rest of Georgia.

[SilentScope001]

(Alright, I know, I know, I said I would leave, but, um...

 

I have been worried over a Russia-Georgia war for quite some time. To see it actually happen just begs me to come over here to say, "Told ya so."

 

That's it. Now back to exile...)

 

And I would like you to define Russian citizen ...

 

Ask the Russian government themselves. The Russians has granted citizenship to anyone living in South Oesstia, as well as the right to use Russian passports. This was the main reason the Russians used for why they sent troops to SO, because they were protecting their own 'citizens'. And overwhealmingly, the majority in SO are Oesstians.

 

The Georgian governments were the ones who started the attack. And I have no sympathy for their leader. However, the current US Strategy (call for a return to the status quo, an ending to the fighting) seems to be the only good one at the moment.

 

This is going to be an important war: If Georgia wins, Russia's power will diminsh heavily. If Russia wins, America's power will diminish heavily. Georgia's military looks very weak on paper, but it did get arms and training from NATO, and it is betting on NATO intervention, so who knows? My money's on Russia though.

[ForeverNight]

Wow SS, weird Double-post... Internet issues? <-- fixed - Cz

 

I remember a remark I made in my English/History class about half a year ago, before my attention was drawn to this area.

 

"Soviet Union Reduex within forty years?"

 

With the way Russia is lately, it looks like that's going to be happening. I guess that my major concern is going to be who's going to blink?

 

We're involved in a giant game of Chicken there, with nations pledging to defend Georgia... well, we all know how well that turned out last time we did something like that.

 

I guess the part of this that worries me the most is how close we (The US) are to Russia... The Bering strait isn't that large, and if we declare war... Well, Anchorage might be in for some trouble.

 

Well... I guess that the Middle East would have to wait if we went to war... I just pray that it remains totally conventional... After all MAD only works if the other side doesn't think they have a chance of defending themselves...

 

((Next time, don't declare your exile so publicly...))

[Ctrl Alt Del]

Too bad that the a third of the population is Georgian, and that the "country" is a patchwork of Georgian villages run by Tiblisi and Ossetian villages run by Tskhinvali.

 

That's not how things work over there. Nationality is not defined at where you were born but where your parents were.

 

On a crude comparison it would be as the immigrations on the US. People that are born on America would live on ghettos divided according to their ascendance, such as the Irish, the welsh ad so on.

[Web Rider]

That's not how things work over there. Nationality is not defined at where you were born but where your parents were.

 

On a crude comparison it would be as the immigrations on the US. People that are born on America would live on ghettos divided according to their ascendance, such as the Irish, the welsh ad so on.

 

 

indeed, and one of the most famous Russians was Georgian, aka: Stalin. It's not like being Georgian implies allegiance to the country of Georgia.

[Da_Man_2423]

 

This is going to be an important war: If Georgia wins, Russia's power will diminsh heavily. If Russia wins, America's power will diminish heavily.

 

Can you please elaborate for both sides how/why their power will diminish if they lose?

 

Georgia's military looks very weak on paper, but it did get arms and training from NATO, and it is betting on NATO intervention, so who knows?

 

Georgia's military IS weak compared to Russia's. When did Georgia get training and equipment from NATO, and how much did they get? Russia has a huge advantage militarily in all aspects. Also, NATO intervening would violate their "rules" as it is a collective defense military alliance, and Georgia is not in NATO.

 

Edit: I read in a newly published article today that Georgia did indeed get military hardware from Western countries, although I'm still interested into how much.

 

My money's on Russia though.

 

Good choice.

[mur'phon]

Ask the Russian government themselves. The Russians has granted citizenship to anyone living in South Oesstia, as well as the right to use Russian passports. This was the main reason the Russians used for why they sent troops to SO, because they were protecting their own 'citizens'. And overwhealmingly, the majority in SO are Oesstians.

 

When did I say the majority wheren't Ossetians? As for them being Russian citizens, I'll consider them Russians once they actually vote to become that, not when Moscow say they are.

 

I guess the part of this that worries me the most is how close we (The US) are to Russia... The Bering strait isn't that large, and if we declare war... Well, Anchorage might be in for some trouble.

 

You Sir, are massively underestimating Russian military might:D

 

Well... I guess that the Middle East would have to wait if we went to war... I just pray that it remains totally conventional... After all MAD only works if the other side doesn't think they have a chance of defending themselves...

 

Agreed, I'm not moving to Russia just to get nuked:xp:

 

That's not how things work over there. Nationality is not defined at where you were born but where your parents were.

 

Well, in that case they are all Georgians since not many countries recognize SO:P

The trouble with SO is that when a village is run by Tiblisi, it's in practise a part of Georgia propper.

 

Just to make my position clear, I have nothing against SO becoming independent in an election. However, I think SOs chance of becoming autonomous is far greater if it is still part of Georgia (who'll get pressured by its western allies), than if it becomes a part of Russia. At best, it might turn out like Chechenya, autonomous, but ruled by a warlord (though in this case, it'll probably be a crimelord).

 

Can you please elaborate for both sides how/why their power will diminish if they lose?

 

Because eastern bloc countries tend to side with either Russia, or the west/US. If Georgia loose, expect to see a lot of countries becoming Russian satelites.

 

Also, NATO intervening would violate their "rules" as it is a collective defense military alliance, and Georgia is not in NATO.

 

True, but I wouldn't be surprised if they intervene to prevent Russia from grabing a lot of it's former satelites. Heck, they might even say that result would threaten member states, and do some preemptive striking.